Week 10: Learn from your mistakes

Is there anything worse than admitting you were wrong about something?
According to my wife, I never admit I’m wrong. And I retort, “why would I? I’m not wrong.”
And that’s when the real fun starts.
But in fantasy, looking back at mistakes made on draft day has always been a fun time to me. Mainly because it is other people who are making those mistakes.
With less than half the season to go, I figured now was the perfect time to take a look back at average draft positions from 2011. I’ll let you know who I picked and when and also make fun of some of my leaguemates along the way.
(The draft results are based on ESPN online leagues and their average draft positions. Number in parenthesis is where that player would likely be selected if draft were held today.)
1. Adrian Peterson (4) —Despite a dismal passing game, AP is still a beast with 3-100 yard games and touchdowns in 6 of 8 games. Solid as can be.
2. Chris Johnson (45) —That didn’t take long, did it? CJ2.8YPC has eclipsed 65 yards in a game only once all year, despite a soft schedule which has included Indianapolis, Denver, Cleveland and Jacksonville. I did draft CJ and was happy to do so with the No. 6 pick. At least he hasn’t gotten hurt; which takes us to…
3. Jamal Charles (INC) — You hope to get more than 83 yards on the season from your first round draft pick.
4. Aaron Rodgers (3) —There is a lot of Aaron Rodgers love going around, but have you really looked at the numbers? Twenty-four TD’s to 3 INT. Double digit TD’s in every single game. Lowest yardage total in a single game is 247. His passer rating is 129.1 while Drew Brees is second at 100.6. He’s not human and he’s not on any of my teams. Sad.
5. Arian Foster (1) — Some were scared off by the hamstring monster, but Foster has rewarded his owners with four, 100-yard games since returning in week four. If there was a redraft for the rest of the year, Foster would be my No. 1 pick. Again, not on any of my teams.
6. Ray Rice (9) — You can’t call Rice a disappointment, but I think a lot more was expected of him this year with the jettisoning of Willis “the vulture” McGahee. Rice has 8 overall touchdowns, but is 15th in the league in rushing yards, despite being healthy all year.
7. Michael Vick (22) —There is no doubt that more was expected of what Vick has given you so far. Zero rushing TD’s hurts (though the 456 yards on the ground is nice). His turnover total, 11, don’t help either. 
8. LeSean McCoy (2) —The first player who was drafted WAY too low. McCoy leads all RB’s in fantasy points and is as dangerous on the ground as he is through the air. Currently on pace to rush for more than 1,600 yards and also haul in 56 passes. Only Foster is a better double threat.
9. Andre Johnson (33) —The first wideout off the board, Andre owners have been bit in the tookus by the injury bug. It also doesn’t help that Johnson has been teasing us owners for weeks about a potential return but still nada. His talent is unquestionable, but this ain’t the first time he’s had leg issues.
10. Maurice-Jones Drew (11) — Many MJD owners are upset about his production thus far, but with Blaine Gabbert under center, how much more do you want? MJD has rushed for at least 63 yards in every game. Even McCoy and AP can’t say that.
11. Drew Brees (13) — The second QB drafted is currently second in touchdowns (21) and second in INT’s (11). He’s already thrown for more than 350 yards in a game a remarkable five times.
12. Rashard Mendenhall (19) — The eighth RB taken is currently behind the likes of Ben Tate, DeMarco Murray and Willis McGahee in terms of yardage, with Michael Vick nipping at his heels. He’s carried more than 19 yards in a game only once.
13. Roddy White (31) — Slowly turning into a mundane possession receiver while Julio Jones is the home run threat. Currently 25th in the league in receiving yards and on pace for a whopping 6 TD’s. He should be getting more heat for being a bust, but for some reason he isn’t.
14. Tom Brady (17) —After throwing for more than 900 yards in the first two weeks, Brady owners were crowing. Now, after throwing 5 TD’s over his last 5 games, we wish we would have sold high.
15. Michael Turner (8) — I keep waiting for this dude to come down to earth, but it just ain’t happening. 4-100 yards games, 7 touchdowns and on pace for close to 1,400 yards.
16. Greg Jennings (18) — Always somehow under the radar, Jennings is once again on pace for double digit scores and 1400 yards receiving.
17. Frank Gore (6) — The knock on Gore has always been health and again this year he is playing through injuries. Five 100 yard games and 5 TD’s. The only thing that has gone missing has been his pass catching (13 receptions).
18. Calvin Johnson (7) — The guy Roddy White owners should have selected (patting myself on the back). Megatron is the best receiver in football and don’t even try to argue it. Eleven touchdowns, five 100 yard games, plus a remaining schedule that includes porous secondaries such as Oakland, Green Bay, Minnesota and New Orleans.
19. Philip Rivers (58) — Not sure what happened here, but 14 interceptions compared to 11 touchdowns does not a good quarterback make. Also doesn’t help that he throws the football like it was a 50 pound weight.
20. Steven Jackson (16) — Always have been a fan of S-Jax and wished that he would be dealt to a real team. Still, he keeps grinding away and you never hear him complain. Averaging 5.1 ypc and looks like he is getting stronger.

Put ’em in
QB: Tim Tebow at KC: He’s going to turn the ball over, probably numerous times. It’s inevitable with those tiny, feminine hands of his. But he could also run for 100 yards. And unless turnovers count as -5 in your league, it is worth the risk. The KC defense allowed Matt Moore to throw three TD’s on them last week. Matt Moore. I’ll be starting Tebow over Tom Brady this week, no lie.
RB1: Steven Jackson at CLE: The Browns have allowed five 100 yard rushers and two more RB’s to reach 90 yards in a game. S-Jax is on fire with 289 yards in the last two weeks. The only way Jackson will get stopped is when the Rams are getting blown out and playing from behind. Can you envision the Browns doing that?
RB2: Ben Tate at TB: Despite being a backup, Tate has 623 yards on the ground and four 100 yard games. He’s rushed for 261 yards over the past three weeks. Those numbers are all better than Rashard Mendenhall, Ray Rice, Cedric Benson and Beanie Wells. Tampa gives up the 5th most fantasy points to RB’s.
WR1: David Nelson at DAL: Last week, Nelson moved back to the slot with the return of Donald Jones from injury. Nelson responded with his best game in weeks, racking up his most targets since week 4 and his first TD since week 5. Change is good.
WR2: Earl Bennett vs DET: Five balls thrown his way Monday night, five catches.
Compare that to Roy Williams (6 targets, 3 catches) and Devin Hester (5 targets, 1 catch). Bennett also registered zero drops in 2010. If you were Jay Cutler, who would you throw the ball to?
WR3: Laurent Robinson vs BUF: What Cowboys receiver leads the team in 100 yard games? It’s not Dez Bryant. It’s not Miles Austin. It’s this guy, who will be starting the next few weeks while Miles rehabs yet another injury. You know how soft those Monmouth guys can be.
TE: Brandon Pettigrew at CHI: The Bears defense does a lot of things right. Defending the tight end is not one of them. Opposing tight ends have amassed 5 or more catches in every game this year against the Bears.
D/ST: Jets vs NE: The Patriots have been unmasked and their offense has become very pedestrian, averaging just 18 points per game over the last three weeks. There should be no hesitation in starting the Jets defense in prime time.

Take ’em out
QB: Josh Freeman vs HOU: The Texans are one of six teams that have more interceptions than passing TD’s allowed. Freeman is one of two QB’s who have started every game for their team and thrown more picks than touchdowns. See, math can be fun!
RB1: Pierre Thomas/Chris Ivory at ATL: Only three running backs have reached the endzone against the Falcons this year. The big problem is that there is no way of knowing who will get the points in the Saints backfield. Ivory had more carries last week, but Thomas got the score.
RB2: Brandon Jacobs at SF: The 49ers continue to dominate opposing RB’s, yet to allow a rushing TD and still no 100 yard games given up. Jacobs scored last week against the Pats, but still was only able to muster 72 yards. Plus, he’s fat.
WR1: Nate Washington vs CAR: You might think he is the number one receiver on the Titans, but take a closer look at the numbers. Lavelle Hawkins and Damian Williams both have more targets over the past five weeks. Plus, Carolina is so bad against the run that most teams don’t even have to throw on them.
WR2: Greg Little vs STL: Yes he leads the team in targets, but that’s akin to being the smartest Kardashian sister. With 31 catches on the year for 295 yards, he still hasn’t a sniff of the endzone. No thanks.
WR3: Austin Pettis at CLE: Good grief the Rams like to throw the ball! So much so that this third round pick from Boise State made it onto the field last week and actually had four targets (after Greg Salas broke his leg). Cleveland gives us the fewest points in the league to wideouts, but Pettis isn’t worth the ink. Plus he’s competing with Brandon Lloyd who is muy macho.
TE: Vernon Davis vs NYG: 15 targets in four weeks. Things aren’t look up for the guy affectionately known as VD. Also, the G-Men have allowed just two touchdowns to tight ends all year.
D/ST: Bengals vs PIT: A top 5 defense in the majority of standard scoring fantasy leagues. They have given up more than 20 points in a game just once all year (week 2). However, the Bengals have played only 1 good team all year (San Fran) and even they don’t have an elite offense. The Steelers have an axe to grind after Sunday night’s loss and Cincy will bear the brunt of that rage.