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Fourth and inches Fantasy Football


Friday, October 14, 2011

Week 5 Fantasy Football: Are you in or are you out?

In this age of political correctness, it’s almost sacrilegious to say something negative, even though it might be the truth.
While I don’t ever aim to hurt feelings (unless you are a Yankees fan), sometimes you just have to be honest.
I’ve coached a number of my son and daughter’s sports teams and believe me, I have become an expert at biting my tongue.
Like when the boy playing goalie abandons his post mid-game to chase a butterfly.
Or when the girl on my daughter’s basketball team runs away from a rebound as if the ball was made out of the bubonic plague.
By week five of the fantasy football season, you should have an idea whether your team is good or not.
I have one team that is 2-2 and I can tell you that it is plain awful. There is no reason on earth that I should have won two games and those owners who I beat should probably quit fantasy altogether.
That team is going nowhere and I know it. Does that mean I’m going to give up? Of course not, but I’m being realistic.  
Here are some ways to know if this is just not your year:
n If you have had to start LaDanian Tomlinson at all in the first four weeks.
n If you were excited about picking up Devin Hester in a league that doesn’t count special teams yardage.
n If you entered the year thinking the Colts wouldn’t miss a beat with Kerry Collins at QB.
n If your biggest decision each week is which of your three kickers you should start.
n If your first four picks in the draft were Jamal Charles, Peyton Manning, Kenny Britt and Antonio Gates.
n If, after week one, you spent your entire season’s free agent budget on Ted Ginn, Jacoby Jones and Randall Cobb.
n If you are still saying out loud “Don’t worry, Andy Reid knows what he is doing.”
n If you are still making Rex Ryan foot jokes.
n If you think you should trade Tom Brady because he cut off his flowing mane.
n If you ever said the words Donnie Avery and sleeper in the same sentence, unless that sentence is “Donnie Avery is NOT a good sleeper.”
Bye weeks are here, making your bench more important than ever. Cleveland, Dallas, St. Louis, Tennessee, Washington and Baltimore are all off in week five, so prepare accordingly.

Put’em in
QB: Donovan McNabb vs. ARI: Goodness he has been terrible, but Donny Mc has some things going for him. He’s increased his point totals every single week. He’s playing at home against a weak Arizona secondary. And the Cardinals are pretty good against the run and I’m sure their gameplan will be to stop AP and make Captain Chunky beat them.
RB1: Ryan Torain bye: Now obviously I’m not telling you to put Torain into your starting lineup, but I am telling you to put him on your team. But it is becoming more and more obvious that Mike Shanahan doesn’t like handing the ball to Tim Hightower. Torain gets injured a lot, but when he’s healthy (like now), he can be a RB1. In eight full games last season, Torain rushed for 742 yards. Grab him and ride him while you can.
RB2: Isaac Redman vs. TEN: The Steelers are struggling and a big reason is Rashard Mendenhall and his 3.0 yards per carry. Big Ben isn’t going to get benched. Neither is Mike Wallace nor Hines Ward. If Mike Tomlin is going to shake things up, it will be in the backfield and Redman has been much more explosive than Mendenhall, though in a smaller capacity. I’m still drooling when I look at the Steelers schedule down the stretch.  Mendenhall is likely to sit out this week with a hamstring and a big game for Redman could make the change permanent.
WR1: Julio Jones vs. GB: I’m not big on rookie receivers, but Jones looks like the real deal. (Atlanta still overpaid for him). Jones has yet to score, but his 38 targets are eighth in the league, ahead of guys like Steve Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Greg Jennings. Speaking of Green Bay, their lone weak spot is the secondary, allowing the third most points to WRs. Matt Ryan has a lot of targets, which is the only thing holding Julio down. My bet is that this is the week he finally finds the endzone.
WR2: Pierre Garcon vs. KC: Who would have thunk that Curtis Painter would actually make a difference (besides Reggie Wayne of course)? Garcon led the team with eight targets with Painter under center and, though he only caught two of them, those two both went for long scores. Garcon still drops too many passes, but with the Colts likely to be behind a lot, Garcon should keep getting looks. At home versus a poor KC secondary makes Garcon a good play.
WR3: Santonio Holmes at NE: I told you to play Holmes last week because I knew he would get the targets. And that he did — 12 of them! Unfortunately, Mark Sanchez eats it, so Holmes was only able to haul in three of those passes. New England gives up the most points to wide receivers in the league and though Rex says they will be going back to grounding and pounding, I think the matchup will be too good to resist.
TE1: Jermaine Gresham at JAX: The Jags defense has been better than advertised, but the one place they are vulnerable is defending the tight end. Gresham is second on the team in targets (28 to AJ Green’s 33) and seems to have a good rapport with Andy Dalton. The Jags have given up scores to tight ends in three straight games. Gresham should make it four.
D/ST: Titans at PITT: The Steelers offensive line is a sieve. The Titans has allowed a league low 56 points (hard to believe, right?).  Can I name three starters on the Titans defense? No. But if they make a stand on the road this weekend, I promise I’ll learn.

Take ’em out
QB: Kyle Orton vs. SD: I have a feeling this is make or break week for Orton. The Tebowphiles are breathing down John Fox’s neck. If the Broncos make the move, they won’t be able to go back. So once Orton is out he stays out, meaning you’ve got some dead weight on your roster.
RB1: Michael Turner vs. GB: Just how explosive is the Packers offense? So explosive that opposing running backs have averaged less than 15 carries per game against the pack, mainly due to the fact that teams are constantly having to play catch-up. In fact, opposing RBs have nearly as many receptions (34) as they do carries (59). Turner has played well so far, but he is a complete non-factor in the passing game (six catches). There won’t be many weeks when Turner is a sit’em, but this is one of them.
RB2: Mike Tolbert at DEN: The Broncos have yet to allow a rushing TD to a halfback this season, holding opposing runners to less than 100 yards per game. Take out week one against RUN DMC and the Broncos have held opposing RBs to just over 50 yards per game. Tolbert’s carries have been dwindling while Ryan Matthews’ have been increasing (37-10 over the past two games). Tolbert is becoming a goal line vulture and nothing more.
WR1: Mario Manningham vs. SEA: This one should be over quickly, meaning the G-Men will be running all day against the Hawks. Not only that, but Manningham finally finds himself as the number three man on the depth chart, having been surpassed by Victor Cruz. Seattle has allowed just two touchdowns to wide receivers on the season and Manningham won’t be the third.
WR2: Devery Henderson at CAR: Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Lance Moore, Robert Meacham, Darren Sproles. There are only so many balls to go around. Henderson was targeted only once more than I was last week and he caught as many passes as my kindergarten teacher Mrs. Booth (who has been dead for 10 years).
WR3: Hines Ward vs. TEN: Another guy caught up in the numbers game. Ward has seen his catches go down every single week (5 to 4 to 3 to 1). If you received points for cheap shot blocks, Ward would be worth keeping. Otherwise, it is time to move on.
TE: Owen Daniels at OAK:  A tough week for tight ends. Witten, Davis and Dickson are on bye. Gronkowski, Finley and Keller have tough matchups. If you have Daniels, you almost have to start him (especially with Andre Johnson out). But don’t expect much. The Raiders hold tight ends to the fourth lowest point total in the league. And last week, they held the red hot Gronkowski to just one catch.
K: Alex Henery at BUF: We’ll see how the kid responds to last week’s two bad misses, which essentially cost the Eagles the game. If he has character, he’ll bounce back. If not, he’ll miss three field goals and then kidnap Dan Marino.
D/ST:  Jets at NE: The second-ranked defense in terms of fantasy points, but you can’t start them at New England. Even if they pick off Tom Brady four times, the Patriots are still likely to put up 30 plus points. Brady has been sacked just four times and has thrown only one INT outside of the Bills debacle.
Suicide Pool Pick: Well, I’m four-for-four and that means if you followed my advice, you are still alive heading into week five. Gone are the Cardinals, Jets, Chargers and Buccaneers (whew, that was closer than it should have been!) After taking some chances, I think I’m going to go for what looks like the easiest play of the week — the Giants at home against the Seahawks. Seattle is never good on the road, plus they are likely focused more on their week 6 bye instead of a weekend getaway to Newark.

posted by Maple Shade Progress blogs at 9:23 AM

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